# Contemporary vs. 5-Year Lagged Demographics → Trilemma Indices

| Variable | MI (Z_t) | MI (Z_t-5) | ERS (Z_t) | ERS (Z_t-5) | FO (Z_t) | FO (Z_t-5) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | 0.1383 | | 0.6348* | | 3.4152*** | |
| | (0.2545) | | (0.3783) | | (0.4517) | |
| Z_2 | -0.0140 | | -0.0694 | | -0.5314*** | |
| | (0.0388) | | (0.0577) | | (0.0696) | |
| Z_3 | 0.0003 | | 0.0020 | | 0.0221*** | |
| | (0.0016) | | (0.0024) | | (0.0029) | |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.0008 | 0.0008 | -0.0000 | -0.0001 | 0.0009 | 0.0010 |
| | (0.0006) | (0.0006) | (0.0009) | (0.0009) | (0.0007) | (0.0007) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 0.0054 | 0.0052 | -0.0024 | -0.0025 | 0.0065 | 0.0048 |
| | (0.0049) | (0.0049) | (0.0068) | (0.0068) | (0.0057) | (0.0057) |
| rgdp_growth | 0.0003 | 0.0003 | 0.0007 | 0.0007 | 0.0001 | 0.0001 |
| | (0.0004) | (0.0004) | (0.0005) | (0.0005) | (0.0004) | (0.0004) |
| log_rel_opw | -0.0307*** | -0.0353*** | 0.0107 | 0.0197 | 0.0468*** | 0.0488*** |
| | (0.0096) | (0.0092) | (0.0142) | (0.0136) | (0.0167) | (0.0150) |
| kaopen | -0.0167*** | -0.0174*** | 0.0402*** | 0.0413*** | | |
| | (0.0041) | (0.0041) | (0.0060) | (0.0060) | | |
| Z_1_lag5 | | 0.2608 | | 0.4794 | | 2.7022*** |
| | | (0.2640) | | (0.3947) | | (0.4712) |
| Z_2_lag5 | | -0.0302 | | -0.0510 | | -0.4198*** |
| | | (0.0407) | | (0.0610) | | (0.0738) |
| Z_3_lag5 | | 0.0009 | | 0.0013 | | 0.0174*** |
| | | (0.0017) | | (0.0025) | | (0.0031) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 4101 | 4101 | 4482 | 4482 | 4658 | 4658 |
| R² | 0.1392 | 0.1427 | 0.0611 | 0.0560 | 0.1207 | 0.1323 |
| Countries | 143 | 143 | 148 | 148 | 153 | 153 |

*Panel GLS with country and year fixed effects. Standard errors in parentheses.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*